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Mucho ojo con el precio del petróleo

petroleo

En estas dos últimas semanas hemos podido comprobar cómo se relaciona el precio del petróleo con cada rumor o indicio de una intervención militar en Siria, y es que históricamente siempre ha habido una relación directa entre el precio del petróleo y las intervenciones militares, especialmente en aquellos territorios que son potencias mundiales en su producción.

Ahora queremos dar un paso más allá, y ver si podemos buscar alguna relación o señal técnica que nos pueda dar pistas a la hora de tomar posiciones. Para ello vamos a mostrar los gráficos del crudo (Texas) y del Brent, siendo el segundo el que normalmente se utiliza como referencia en Europa y el primero en Estados Unidos.

Si vamos hacia atrás en la historia y nos remontamos a la Guerra del Golfo Pérsico, que comenzó el 2 de agosto de 1990 y finalizó oficialmente el 28 de febrero de 1991, podremos ver la gran influencia que tuvo en el precio del crudo, y además, de qué manera tan explosiva tuvo lugar la subida de éste.

Fijaros la figura tan meteórica que realizó desde el día del estallido, donde pasó de estar cotizando por debajo de los 58,70 dólares a llegar a los 76 dólares, una subida de casi un 30% en apenas dos meses, batiéndose el récord de cotización, porque nunca antes había alcanzado un precio tan elevado. Obviamente éste no parece que vaya a ser el caso de Siria, no sólo porque se supone que será una intervención rápida y selectiva (aunque nunca se sabe…), sino porque las reservas en Kuwait e Iraq no tienen nada que ver con las sirias.

Si nos paramos un poco en el gráfico, veis que hemos dibujado una resistencia que pasa por los 58,70 dólares, que era un nivel de precio no superado desde 1986, y además fue el último máximo previo a la intervención, luego podemos considerar esa resistencia como una referencia técnica muy consistente, de modo que cualquier cierre semanal por encima de la misma nos daría una importante alerta. De hecho, según nuestro método de trading, al cierre de la vela semanal en la fecha correspondiente a la intervención, se daban todas las condiciones para posicionarse largos, y la hemos marcado en el gráfico con una flecha verde.

¿Y qué pasó cuando se empezó a hablar del fin de la guerra?

Ocurrió que espectacularmente el precio del crudo volvió a colocarse con igual celeridad por debajo de los 58,70 dólares que acabamos de comentar, y así siguió hasta 1996, nada más y nada menos.

Ahora que ya hemos hecho un poco de historia, estamos en condiciones de estudiar los gráficos del crudo y del Brent para ver si encontramos alguna señal de alarma similar.

Empezando por el crudo, podemos ver que el precio lo teníamos enmarcado en un triángulo, con soporte ascendente y resistencia descendente, y así ha sido hasta el mes de julio, donde se ha perforado la resistencia oblicua que pasaba por los últimos máximos representativos (período comprendido entre septiembre de 2012 y julio de 2013), y a continuación también se perforó la directriz bajista del triángulo que acabamos de comentar, por lo que podemos ver cómo a partir de esa fecha, el precio del crudo se ha mantenido en todo momento por encima de la misma, aunque se ha comportado claramente de forma lateral entre los 102 y los 109 dólares, a excepción de la semana pasada, que superó durante la semana dicho precio, llegando hasta los 112,6 dólares (hablamos en todo momento del futuro del crudo), y saltando todas las alarmas en los medios de comunicación.

Si vemos el RSc Mansfield vemos como coincide perfectamente el corte ascendente de la línea cero con la vela de entrada que acabamos de comentar. Además se cumplen el resto de condiciones para entrar, luego ya antes de empezar a hablarse de la intervención en Siria, el gráfico empezaba a dar señales de fortaleza.

Para que el movimiento alcista tenga cierta consistencia en el tiempo, tendría que rebasar las dos referencias que pasan por los dos grandes máximos previos de febrero de 2012 y abril de 2011, que son los 115,86 y 122,32 dólares respectivamente.

Si nos pasamos al referente en Europa, el Brent, el gráfico es el siguiente:

En este caso el análisis es todavía más fácil, porque podemos ver claramente una zona de resistencia en los 116 dólares, zona que el subyacente ha testeado en varias ocasiones, la primera en febrero de 2012, la segunda en febrero de 2013 y la última la semana pasada y lo que llevamos de esta (marcados en el gráfico con círculos). De hecho, la semana pasada ya hizo una cola por encima de esta resistencia, si bien el cierre semanal fue finalmente por debajo.

Por la parte de abajo, vemos claramente una directriz alcista (dibujada en verde), con lo que nuevamente tenemos un triángulo, en este caso ascendente, pues la parte de arriba es horizontal. Si observamos el RSc Mansfield podemos ver cómo acaba de cortar levemente la línea cero de modo ascendente, y se dan todas las condiciones para que si se da un cierre semanal por encima de la resistencia que hemos dibujado, tengamos una buena oportunidad de posicionarnos largos en el Brent.

Mientras no se consiga cerrar por encima de ese nivel, no deberíamos entrar, porque fácilmente podría hacer lo que hizo el pasado mes de febrero, retroceder hasta la directriz alcista de soporte.

Por tanto, para nosotros existen las condiciones que necesitamos previas a una toma de posiciones largas en el petróleo, tanto en el crudo como en el Brent (aunque más claro el segundo), pero debemos esperar a ver el cierre semanal por encima de los niveles que hemos marcado.

En resumen, a nivel técnico se dan todas las condiciones para coincidir con el hecho de una subida del petróleo si se produce finalmente la intervención en Siria.

10 Respuestas a “Mucho ojo con el precio del petróleo”


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    {I love|I really like|I enjoy|I like|Everyone loves} what you guys {are|are usually|tend to
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    {I love|I really like|I enjoy|I like|Everyone loves} what you guys {are|are usually|tend to
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    {Howdy|Hi there|Hi|Hey there|Hello|Hey} would
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    {I love|I really like|I like|Everyone loves} it {when people|when individuals|when folks|whenever people} {come together|get together} and share {opinions|thoughts|views|ideas}.

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    Thank you for the {auspicious|good} writeup. It in fact was a amusement account
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    {Where|Exactly where} are your contact details though?|
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    {Hi there|Hello there|Howdy}! This {post|article|blog
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    {Pretty sure|Fairly certain} {he will|he’ll|he’s going to} {have a good|have a very good|have a great} read.
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    My {coder|programmer|developer} is trying to {persuade|convince} me to move to .net from
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    I have heard {fantastic|very good|excellent|great|good} things about blogengine.net.

    Is there a way I can {transfer|import} all my wordpress
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    {article|post|piece of writing|paragraph} in news papers but now
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    {Hello|Hi} there, {simply|just} {turned into|became|was|become|changed into} {aware of|alert to} your {blog|weblog} {thru|through|via} Google,
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